5 Strategies and Tips to Place a Bet on the NFL
NFL football is America’s most beloved sport. It is, therefore, no surprise that NFL football is also the most popular sport in America. Many fans take advantage of every moment of the action thanks to television channels like NFL Sunday Ticket and NFL RedZone. All that research and viewing only sometimes translate into winning bets.
BettingPros is here to help you turn your fortunes on NFL betting.
These five strategies and tips will help you get started with your NFL betting season.
Reverse Line Movement
You are probably familiar with the expression “sharps and squares” if you are an avid NFL bettor. Squares are more recreational bettors.
Oddsmakers can point out betting actions that pit squares against sharps in many NFL games. This conflicted activity is most likely to lead to reverse line movement. In reverse line movement, oddsmakers favor the side with significantly less money on it because they consider it the “sharpest” side. Since the sharps are usually more knowledgeable, oddsmakers respect “sharp” money and “square money.”
Many sites, including ours at Betting Pros, will track the percentage of bets or money placed on NFL games. Be on the lookout for games where the line moves against the majority of funds or bets. Look for the lower bet side if you spot one. This will allow you to agree with the “sharps,” who are always more profitable long-term than the “squares.”
The NFL is the most affected by home-field advantage, with most NFL stadiums hosting more than 70,000 fans.
Some teams in the league are considered unbeatable at home. Over the past six seasons, the New England Patriots have a 48-9 SU record. Their dominant -ATS record covers 66.7% of their home games between 2014-2018. CenturyLink Field is home to the Seattle Seahawks, which has one of the most impressive home-field advantages. Seattle has been 92-31 SU home since 2003.
However, this does not mean that every home team always covers the spread. When calculating their lines, oddsmakers automatically include home-field advantage.
If one digs deeper, one will likely find more advantages. An east coast team may be able to play at home against a West Coast team at 1:00 ET. What team is more rested than their opponent after a bye week? Are they on a three-game road trip that is exhausting? When placing a wager, you should consider all of these scheduling advantages.
Don’t Overreact to the Last Week
NFL bettors can often fall prey to the team’s dominance from the previous week, believing that it will continue into the following week. The most intelligent people in the world are the oddsmakers. They can predict how the public will react when a team plays well, and they will take the opposing sentiments of the people into account when setting the lines.
The oddsmakers will remove all betting value on a team during a hot streak. Additionally, NFL coaches are intelligent people. The NFL coaches have all week to study film and devise a strategy to defeat their opponent’s best players. Unpredictability is one of the reasons why the NFL is so popular. This is especially true when it involves betting.
Every sport has its “public team” or iconic teams with firm fan support across the country. Some popular public NFL teams include the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Dallas Cowboys.
Recognized as “squares,” recreational bettors are responsible for large amounts of money placed weekly on public teams. Squares are prone to bet with all their heart and not enough for their heads. As fans, they are too proud to admit that their team does not perform well in certain weeks.
Public teams will cover and win their fair share of NFL games. Bettors need to remember that these teams are popular and will likely win a lot of money.
Shop for the Best Lines
For every sport, it is essential to shop at multiple sportsbooks to find the best line. But football is more affected by differences in lines than any other sport.
Many football games end with one team winning by three to seven points. This is because of the scoring system. The oddsmakers have many lines, with one group being more likely to succeed than another by three to seven points. If one does a little research, one may find a few with half-point differences. The difference between winning and losing a bet is how much a team will spend 2.5 points against three.
The “hook” is an extra half-point that dramatically changes the perception of a line. You can “buy the hook” to adjust the line by half-point if all the sportsbooks offer lines of three to seven for a game. While it will cost more, you’ll have a good advantage over the oddsmakers if you use it correctly.